Merz remains in Berlin, coalition faces test ahead of election Sunday

Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pursuing an ambitious economic agenda to give Germany's long-stagnating economy new impetus. Following a constitutional reform in March 2025, the government has significantly expanded financial scope for investments in defence, infrastructure and reforms. At the centre of the conflict are questions about energy policy, petrol prices and the pace of reforms, where Federal Economics Minister Reiche and the SPD disagree significantly. Whilst large business associations such as BDA, ZDH and DIHK demand faster reforms, there is also resistance within the Union against the Chancellor's course. Experts analyse the opportunities and risks of the reform project whilst monitoring European fiscal rules, as the government attempts to save and invest at the same time.

Read more in the deep dive on Economy. Stalled reforms and uncertainty burden the economy amid the coalition crisis

Friedrich Merz leads a coalition of CDU, CSU and SPD, but faces considerable political pressure from poor polling figures, internal conflicts and election losses. Following the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt, speculation about a possible chancellor coup has intensified, with names such as Markus Söder, Alexander Dobrindt and Hendrik Wüst mentioned as potential successors. The coalition is burdened by internal tensions such as the pension package, and the SPD side, with Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, must also be observed as an actor in coalition mechanics. Further state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern could additionally heighten the tense situation. Potential successors have so far kept quiet, while the constitutional instruments for a government crisis are in place. Internationally, think tanks, the EU and governments are observing the transatlantic dimension of this domestic political development with great interest.

Read more in the deep dive on Politics and Security. Coalition crisis, Merz plans confidence vote, Union debates succession

Support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz has come under massive pressure. Polls show clear dissatisfaction with the Chancellor, whilst the Union parties are falling to five year lows in voter surveys. Within the CDU itself, support is crumbling, with scenarios for a possible chancellor change also circulating. The upcoming state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are regarded as a possible turning point in this crisis. Various media commentaries reflect a tense situation for the coalition, whilst Merz sends counter signals with announcements such as fuel price relief. According to reports, the Union is preparing itself for substantial electoral outcomes.

Read more in the deep dive on Society and Science. Support crumbles, public and Union doubt Merz

Chancellor Friedrich Merz is the target of a systematic disinformation campaign that, according to security circles, originates from Russia-aligned actors. The forgeries employ various forms, including forged videos with media logos, fabricated news articles and film excerpts taken out of context, which are distributed via social networks. The Bundesverfassungsschutz warned of targeted disinformation campaigns against the Chancellor in the run-up to state elections. Media outlets and research institutions systematically document these campaigns and debunk the individual false claims. Established fact-checkers play an essential role in exposing this misinformation.

Read more in the deep dive on Disinformation. Russian disinformation and Deepfakes against Federal Chancellor Merz

Support for Merz in the Union is crumbling. Public broadcasting and major media outlets consistently report on open internal party unrest and growing criticism of the Chancellor ¹⁸+420 FAZ23 tagesschau32 tagesschau34 FAZ. The mood within the Union is divided. One faction emphasises the dire situation whilst another argues that changing the Chancellor would not solve any problems. Criticism mostly remains anonymous and potential successors remain tight-lipped ²³. No concrete named calls for resignation from the CDU are present in the available reports. The FAZ characterises the debate as one in which Merz is spoken of brutally and the Chancellor's loss of authority is being driven forward from within his own party ²⁰+134 FAZ.

Scenarios for resignation are being discussed

Public broadcasting and major media outlets consistently report that for weeks scenarios such as "coup", "changing the Chancellor" or a confidence vote have been discussed that sketch out a political end to Merz's chancellorship ¹. n-tv outlines five concrete scenarios for a possible change of Chancellor after the elections ²⁸. In a podcast, Süddeutsche raises the question of whether Merz will survive the coming election Sunday politically ¹⁶. In a report, Berliner Zeitung assumes that Merz is preparing a withdrawal and names six individuals being discussed as potential successors ¹⁷.

Unconfirmed reports from individual sources

These more pointed claims each come from a single source and independent confirmation is outstanding. The previous report that critics within the CDU are already calling for the Chancellor's resignation is also supported by only a single source and has not been independently confirmed ⁴. Also supported by only a single source is the assessment of a tabloid that the parliamentary majority relations with a strong AfD faction would make new elections effectively more difficult and thereby could prevent a "toppling of the Chancellor" ³. Entertainer Harald Schmidt spoke in defence of Merz in an interview and hopes that he will survive the legislative period ³¹.

Merz seeks dialogue in the Union

On Tuesday evening, Merz took part in a discussion with young people at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Berlin Prenzlauer Berg and received applause there. The scene is described in several media outlets as a contrast to the general atmosphere of crisis ²⁵+127 n-tv Politik. Merz himself described the time as "damn not easy" ²⁵.

State parliament elections will take place in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern next Sunday, and the result could have political consequences for Merz ¹⁵+321 Süddeutsche22 tagesschau28 n-tv Politik. According to reports from Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Union is preparing for the worst under the impression of alarming polls. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in particular, the CDU faces the threat of another setback ¹⁶+121 Süddeutsche. The weekly Die Zeit takes the view that from Sunday onwards everything will become unstable. However, it maintains that a possible end to the black-red coalition would not mean the end of democracy ⁶.

In the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, the Union falls to 20 per cent, reaching a five-year low. According to the same reports, approval ratings for Merz reach a new record low. The person of the Chancellor is particularly cited as a reason for the dissatisfaction ²⁹. According to an aggregator report citing the ARD Trend, public opinion in Germany appears clearly negative towards Chancellor Merz and the coalition in early September. There is no independent confirmation of these polling values through further sources in the available reports ⁷.

A further aggregator report from 13 September states that the CDU is considering a "coalition rupture as a last resort". This representation also comes from a single, tabloid-oriented source and is not independently confirmed ⁵.

The election result of the most recent state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt puts pressure on Merz domestically according to several reports and is seen as one of the triggers of the current escalation ²². An aggregator report speaks of hardened positions within the black-red coalition following the Saxony-Anhalt election ³³.

The debate about the stability of the black-red coalition extends throughout the year. As early as April, an aggregator report reported that the coalition had agreed on energy assistance ⁹. At the end of April, according to an aggregator report, the coalition hailed a compromise on budget and health reform ¹¹. In May, the former Hessian Minister-President Roland Koch expressed the view that Merz was the right Chancellor ⁸. Also in May, WELT reported on the Chancellor's room for manoeuvre in the coalition crisis ¹⁰.

In August 2025, WELT had published an article with the title "Then that will cost Merz the chancellorship" ¹³. At the end of August 2025, according to an aggregator report, Merz faced questions about the coalition crisis in a ZDF summer interview ¹⁴. In November 2025, according to an aggregator report, Merz appeared convinced that the black-red coalition would remain stable despite tensions ¹². All these individual statements each come from a single source. An independent confirmation in the available news reporting is lacking.

It is established on the basis of the available reports that Merz has cancelled his UN trip, that open rebellion and crumbling support for the Chancellor can be observed in the Union, that the coalition itself speaks of a "test" and that state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with potential political significance for the chancellorship are scheduled for next Sunday. Concrete scenarios such as confidence vote, no-confidence vote, new election, minority government or coalition change are mentioned in the reports as discussion material, but are not presented as decided or imminent steps.

Statements about concrete resignation preparation, about named successor candidates, about individual poll values beyond the RTL/ntv trend barometer or about possible coalition breakdown come from individual sources in each case and are currently not independently confirmed.