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Latest developments with sources
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Merz cancels his trip to the UN General Debate because his presence in Berlin is required.
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On election Sunday, 20 September, Merz plans an indirect vote of confidence in the CDU presidium.
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Seniors' Union chief Hüppe advises Merz against putting forward a confidence vote in CDU bodies.
Summary
Friedrich Merz has been leading a coalition of CDU, CSU and SPD for approximately one year. Already in early May 2026, shortly after his first year in office, French media classified his situation as 'on probation' and saw the chancellor weakened 20. The French think tank Ifri drew a critical interim assessment of the coalition's work in May 2026 25. Already in February 2025, before government formation, the Carnegie Foundation warned that Germany could no longer afford another inward focus in foreign policy 23.
The German Council on Foreign Relations noted in November 2025 that Germany had an 'inability to engage in global politics' 7. At the end of April 2026, the Berliner Zeitung reported that a vote of confidence was drawing closer for Merz, which documented the trend of growing pressure within his own government since spring 33. At the end of July 2026, the right-wing conservative portal The European Conservative reported that reports of a CDU internal revolt against Merz were increasing 34.
The Atlantic Council highlights the transatlantic dimension in an issue brief from 11 September 2026 and discusses the question of whether Merz's chancellorship can survive 28. The FAZ described in an analysis on 12 September 2026 how 'brutally' people were now talking about Merz and linked the rise of the AfD to the dilemma facing the Union 46.
The constitutional instruments in a government crisis are established. According to Article 68 of the Basic Law, the Federal Chancellor can call for a vote of confidence. If he loses it, the Federal President can dissolve the Bundestag on the proposal of the Chancellor 17. According to Article 67 of the Basic Law, the Bundestag can only topple the chancellor by electing a successor with the majority of its members (constructive vote of no confidence) 16.
The most recent precedent dates back only a few months. According to the legal portal Legal Tribune Online, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a vote of confidence on 16 December 2024, and the new election took place on 23 February 2025 36. Following this, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced the dissolution of the Bundestag and new elections at the end of December 2024 18.
Merz, Söder and the successor candidates
Friedrich Merz (CDU), Federal Chancellor, stands at the centre of the current debate 12 Tagesspiegel4 Neue Zürcher Zeitung11 Junge Freiheit27 Berliner Zeitung31 t-online32 Tagesspiegel37 Berliner Zeitung38 Tagesspiegel41 Bloomberg Politics42 tagesschau44 ZDF heute45 FAZ (Liveblog)48 Süddeutsche Zeitung49 n-tv Politik24112731323738414244454849. Markus Söder (CSU Chair) rejects a formal confidence vote 12 and is simultaneously discussed in reporting as a possible successor 3035 Die Tagespost37 Berliner Zeitung3537. Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) and Hendrik Wüst (CDU, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia) are named as further possible successors in a 'Chancellor swap check' by Hersfelder Zeitung 30. The Catholic-leaning Tagespost devotes a separate article to the trio on 15 September 2026 about the 'CDU world after Merz' 35.
According to a fact-check from early August 2026, Wüst himself stated that the chancellorship is currently not an option. Berliner Zeitung reports on 15 September 2026 that six names are now being discussed in the CDU for the succession, with one candidate supposedly being particularly promising. The newspaper notes in this context qualities that Merz lacks 37.
tagesschau describes the mood in the Union parliamentary group on 15 September 2026 as divided. One part emphasises the difficult situation, others consider a chancellor swap to be no solution. Criticism remains mostly anonymous and potential successors keep their heads down 42. For the SPD, Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is presented in reporting as an actor in coalition mechanics. According to Berliner Zeitung, Merz rejects an allegation published in Der Spiegel that Merz shouted at him in the coalition committee 26. Matthias Miersch, the SPD Group Leader, is named as another key actor 12.
Sven Schulze, CDU state chair in Saxony-Anhalt, does not expect an immediate new election in the state according to a quote from a ZDF talk show 8. AfD politician Björn Höcke picks up on this statement in a Telegram post. His channel is to be classified as far-right 8. The left-liberal taz commentatorially positions itself with the demand that Merz must go 29. According to an assessment reported on 15 September 2026, the Seniors Union advises Merz against a confidence vote in CDU bodies 40. The right-conservative outlet The European Conservative has been advancing reporting on a revolt in the CDU since late July 2026 34.
Institutionally, besides the Bundestag and Federal Government, the Federal President (role according to Art. 68 of the German Basic Law) as well as governments abroad, EU institutions and think tanks such as ECFR, Carnegie, DGAP, Ifri and the transatlantic security policy orientated Atlantic Council are involved 79 European Council on Foreign Relations23 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace25 Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri)28 Atlantic Council9232528.
Coalition under pressure and the successor question
After the AfD victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election 114 The Globe and Mail (Reuters)14, the coalition's situation has become further strained. Tagesspiegel summarised on 13 September 2026 the combination of electoral defeat, internal conflict and poor polling figures as a pressure scenario for Merz 1. In a separate analysis on the same day, it described an 'erosion of authority in public' and a 'chancellorship in twilight' 32. On the coming election Sunday, 20 September 2026, state elections are scheduled in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that the Union is preparing for significant losses and that Merz has indicated relief on fuel prices in view of alarming polling figures 4748 Süddeutsche Zeitung48. At the core of the coalition's internal conflict is, among other things, the pension package. Merz fundamentally holds to it but makes concessions to Junge Union on details 56 Tagesspiegel6. t-online placed the situation on 13 September 2026 in the context of the question of how much longer the situation around a possible chancellor's downfall could continue 31.
ZDF heute asked on 15 September 2026 whether the election Sunday would already bring a decision on Merz's future and listed the circulating scenarios 'putsch, chancellor swap, confidence vote' 44.
Tagesspiegel, NZZ, Junge Freiheit, Berliner Zeitung, Bloomberg and other media consistently report that Merz wants to bring about an indirect confidence vote on his own behalf in the CDU Presidium on election Sunday, 20 September 2026 24 Neue Zürcher Zeitung11 Junge Freiheit27 Berliner Zeitung37 Berliner Zeitung38 Tagesspiegel39 NZZ41 Bloomberg Politics44 ZDF heute411273738394144. Junge Freiheit speculates about a possible resignation in this context 11. NZZ, Tagesspiegel and Berliner Zeitung speak of a possible indirect confidence vote 24 Neue Zürcher Zeitung27 Berliner Zeitung38 Tagesspiegel39 NZZ4273839. These reports concern an internal CDU party body, not the confidence vote under Article 68 of the Basic Law.
According to reports circulated on 15 September 2026, the Senioren-Union advises Merz against such a confidence vote in CDU bodies 40. Already at the end of April 2026, Berliner Zeitung had first reported that a confidence vote was coming closer for Merz. At the end of July 2026, the right-wing conservative portal The European Conservative reported on growing CDU internal revolt. The current escalation thus continues a trend documented since spring 3334 The European Conservative34. A Spiegel report is disputed, according to which Merz allegedly shouted at Vice Chancellor Klingbeil in a coalition committee. Merz rejects this account 26.
According to ZDF heute from May 2026, CSU leader Söder rejects a formal confidence vote in the Bundestag. Merz himself also took this position 12. Merz also rules out a minority government and an early election 1319 Finanzen.at (dpa-AFX)19. The rejection of such speculation was reported again on 13 September 2026 19. In Saxony-Anhalt, dissolving the state parliament requires a two-thirds majority, which would be practically impossible without the consent of the largest parliamentary group 8. CDU state leader Schulze therefore does not expect a new election at state level. Independent confirmation of this assessment by other persons is not available from the current reports 8.
In the succession debate, several names are now circulating. A 'chancellor-swap check' by Hersfelder Zeitung presents Söder, Dobrindt and Wüst 30. The Catholic-oriented Tagespost asks on 15 September 2026 what the CDU world would look like after Merz and devotes a separate article to the same three persons, without this being an official candidacy 35. Berliner Zeitung reports on 15 September 2026 that six names are being discussed in the CDU as possible successors, with one candidate considered particularly promising 37.
The left-liberal taz called for Merz's resignation in a commentary on 11 September 2026 29. Based on the current reports, there is still no officially declared candidacy 2122 Nordkurier30 Hersfelder Zeitung35 Die Tagespost37 Berliner Zeitung22303537. According to reports, Merz intends to account for himself at a parliamentary group meeting in the coming week and fight for his position there 1542 tagesschau44 ZDF heute48 Süddeutsche Zeitung424448.
On foreign policy, Merz reaffirmed support for Ukraine in a government statement on 11 June 2026 and rejected joint debt for the EU budget 15. On 13 September 2026, a Russian drone hit a train from Kyiv to Warsaw. According to the report, advisers from Merz's circle were evacuated in the incident 24. A clear sign of the escalation of the domestic situation is the short-notice cancellation of the trip to the United Nations General Debate in New York.
Bloomberg, tagesschau, FAZ, Süddeutsche and n-tv report unanimously on 15 September 2026 that Merz is cancelling the trip planned for the coming week because his presence is required in Berlin 4142 tagesschau45 FAZ (Liveblog)47 Süddeutsche Zeitung (Podcast)48 Süddeutsche Zeitung49 n-tv Politik4245474849. According to FAZ, the Chancellor speaks of a 'test of faith for the coalition' 45. The US think tank Atlantic Council asks in an issue brief from 11 September 2026 whether Merz's chancellorship can survive and places the German government crisis in a transatlantic security policy context 28. At the same time, succession options are being discussed within the Union 2122 Nordkurier30 Hersfelder Zeitung35 Die Tagespost37 Berliner Zeitung22303537.
Constitutional scenarios and outlook
The established factual situation presents the following picture. Merz is under pressure domestically and internationally 120 franceinfo28 Atlantic Council31 t-online32 Tagesspiegel42 tagesschau45 FAZ (Liveblog)46 FAZ (CDU im Dilemma)20283132424546, but publicly rules out the three formal break scenarios (vote of confidence under Art. 68 GG, minority government, new election) 1213 Bloomberg19 Finanzen.at (dpa-AFX)1319. The focus of ongoing reporting is therefore on internal CDU mechanisms, in particular the presidium meeting reported for Sunday 20 September 2026 24 Neue Zürcher Zeitung11 Junge Freiheit27 Berliner Zeitung37 Berliner Zeitung38 Tagesspiegel39 NZZ44 ZDF heute4112737383944 and the faction meeting announced for the coming week 4244 ZDF heute48 Süddeutsche Zeitung4448.
The cancellation of the UN trip underscores, according to consistent reporting, how strongly the domestic situation now constrains the Chancellor's actions 4142 tagesschau45 FAZ (Liveblog)47 Süddeutsche Zeitung (Podcast)49 n-tv Politik42454749. Whether the presidium will see an indirect confidence vote, a clarification of course or personnel consequences remains open. Noteworthy is the continuity of the pressure. Similar escalations were already reported in late April 2026 33 and late July 2026 34 without a formal break occurring. The matter is explicitly "in development".
Constitutionally, dissolution of the Bundestag remains tied to the interplay of a vote of confidence, the Chancellor's proposal and the decision of the Federal President 1718 Deutscher Bundestag (hib)36 Legal Tribune Online1836. The constructive vote of no confidence would depend on a majority for a specific successor 16. From the available reports, there is no indication of such a parliamentary majority against Merz. The discussed names (Söder, Dobrindt, Wüst and others) are commentators' speculation, not declared candidacies 3035 Die Tagespost37 Berliner Zeitung3537. The Scholz precedent also shows that around ten weeks can pass between the vote of confidence and a new election (16 December 2024 to 23 February 2025) 36, which structures the timeframe of any dissolution decision.
From an international perspective, the crisis is classified as a potential burden on EU decision-making capacity, Ukraine policy and defence spending. The available analyses from ECFR, Ifri and Atlantic Council primarily address political instability and its European and transatlantic impact 925 Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri)28 Atlantic Council2528. The Bloomberg reporting on the cancellation of the UN trip contextualises the event internationally and describes it as a response to an "open rebellion" within the party itself 41. Concrete responses from individual governments (Paris, Warsaw, Washington, London, Kyiv) are not documented in the available reports. A further investigation into government statements and diplomatic statements remains open.
Sources analysed for this situation, by number of news items
This overview shows which sources the Monitor analysed for this situation. Being listed is neither an assessment nor an endorsement.
WebBerliner Zeitung DE 6
News items from this source (6) www.berliner-zeitung.de
- Merz bereitet wohl Rückzug vor: Am Wahlsonntag kommt es bei der CDU zum Showdown
- Merz bereitet wohl Rückzug vor: Am Wahlsonntag kommt es bei der CDU zum Showdown - Berliner Zeitung
- Am Wahlsonntag: Merz will Union offenbar die Vertrauensfrage stellen - Berliner Zeitung
- Am Wahlsonntag: Merz will Union offenbar die Vertrauensfrage stellen
- Streit der Koalition: Merz dementiert, Klingbeil angeschrien zu haben
- Unruhe in der Regierung: Vertrauensfrage rückt für Merz näher
WebTagesspiegel DE 4
News items from this source (4) www.tagesspiegel.de
- Merz geht auf Junge Union zu, bleibt bei Rentenpaket aber grundsätzlich hart
- Kommt es zum Schwur? Merz könnte am Sonntag im CDU-Präsidium die Vertrauensfrage stellen - Tagesspiegel
- Kommt es zum Schwur? Merz könnte am Sonntag im CDU-Präsidium die Vertrauensfrage stellen
- Kanzlerdaemmerung: Merz erlebt einen Autoritaetsverfall auf offener Bühne
WebFAZ DE 3
Webtagesschau DE 2
News items from this source (2) www.tagesschau.de
Webn-tv Politik DE 2
News items from this source (2) www.n-tv.de
WebSüddeutsche DE 2
News items from this source (2) www.sueddeutsche.de
WebDeutscher Bundestag DE 2
News items from this source (2) www.bundestag.de
WebZDFheute DE 2
News items from this source (2) news.google.com
WebBloomberg Politics EN 1
News items from this source (1) www.bloomberg.com
WebZeit DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.zeit.de
WebPomona - Das Wallis im Hosensack DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebZDF heute DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.zdfheute.de
WebJoyn DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webweltwoche.ch DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebThurgauer Zeitung DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebWEB.DE DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Web1&1 DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebBerliner Morgenpost DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebTichys Einblick DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebWELT DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebNZZ DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webtixio - Nachrichten DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webmmnews.de DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webad-hoc-news.de DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webbluewin.ch DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebFrankfurter Rundschau DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebHeute DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebBlick DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebNau DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebWetterauer Zeitung DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
Webfreiewelt.net DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebYahoo Nachrichten DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebDie Tagespost DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.die-tagespost.de
WebNeue Zürcher Zeitung DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.nzz.ch
WebJunge Freiheit DE 1
News items from this source (1) jungefreiheit.de
WebeXXpress DE 1
News items from this source (1) exxpress.at
WebNordkurier DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.nordkurier.de
Webt-online DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.t-online.de
WebTagesspiegel (dpa) DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.tagesspiegel.de
WebFinanzen.at (dpa-AFX) DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.finanzen.at
WebEuronews DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.euronews.com
WebHersfelder Zeitung DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.hersfelder-zeitung.de
WebAtlantic Council EN 1
News items from this source (1) www.atlanticcouncil.org
Webtaz DE 1
News items from this source (1) taz.de
WebEuropean Council on Foreign Relations EN 1
News items from this source (1) ecfr.eu
WebThe Globe and Mail (Reuters) EN 1
News items from this source (1) www.theglobeandmail.com
Webn-tv.de DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
TelegramTelegram: Björn Höcke DE 1
News items from this source (1) t.me
Webcorrectiv.org DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebInternationale Politik Quarterly EN 1
News items from this source (1) ip-quarterly.com
WebThe European Conservative EN 1
News items from this source (1) europeanconservative.com
WebInstitut français des relations internationales FR 1
News items from this source (1) www.ifri.org
WebDIE ZEIT DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebBloomberg EN 1
News items from this source (1) www.google.com
Webfranceinfo FR 1
News items from this source (1) www.franceinfo.fr
WebDerWesten DE 1
News items from this source (1) news.google.com
WebDeutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik DE 1
News items from this source (1) dgap.org
WebDeutscher Bundestag (Glossar und Kapitel 6.13 des Datenhandbuchs) DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.bundestag.de
WebCarnegie Endowment for International Peace EN 1
News items from this source (1) carnegieendowment.org
WebDeutscher Bundestag (hib) DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.bundestag.de
WebLegal Tribune Online DE 1
News items from this source (1) www.lto.de
Cited sources
Footnotes from the report
- [1] Tagesspiegel (dpa) https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/dpa-kanzler-und-koalition-16047410.html
- [2] Tagesspiegel https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kommt-es-zum-schwur-merz-konnte-am-sonntag-im ...
- [4] Neue Zürcher Zeitung https://www.nzz.ch/deutschland/friedrich-merz-unter-druck-stellt-der-bundeskanzle ...
- [5] Tagesspiegel https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/merz-geht-auf-junge-union-zu--bleibt-bei-rent ...
- [6] Tagesspiegel https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/merz-geht-auf-junge-union-zu--bleibt-bei-rent ...
- [7] Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik https://dgap.org/de/forschung/publikationen/deutschland-ist-unfaehig-zur-weltpoli ...
- [8] Telegram: Björn Höcke (AfD, rechtsextrem) https://t.me/BjoernHoeckeAfD/3617
- [9] European Council on Foreign Relations https://ecfr.eu/article/beyond-saxony-anhalt-what-merzs-crisis-means-for-europe
- [11] Junge Freiheit https://jungefreiheit.de/politik/deutschland/2026/showdown-im-cdu-praesidium-trit ...
- [12] ZDFheute https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/koalition-cdu-csu-spd-soeder-miersch-100.html
- [13] Bloomberg https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Awww.bloomberg.com+Merz+Rejects+Minority+Go ...
- [14] The Globe and Mail (Reuters) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-afd-merz-german-state-election/
- [15] Deutscher Bundestag https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2026/kw24-de-regierungserklaerung-1 ...
- [16] Deutscher Bundestag (Glossar Konstruktives Misstrauensvotum) https://www.bundestag.de/services/glossar/glossar/K/konst_misstrau-245482
- [17] Deutscher Bundestag (Vertrauensfrage und vorzeitige Neuwahlen) https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw47-vertrauensfrage-1030198
- [18] Deutscher Bundestag (hib) https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1035368
- [19] Finanzen.at (dpa-AFX) https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/spekulationen-ueber-minderheitsregieru ...
- [20] franceinfo https://www.franceinfo.fr/replay-radio/d-un-monde-a-l-autre/un-an-au-pouvoir-et-d ...
- [21] eXXpress https://exxpress.at/politik/kanzler-krise-so-koennte-merz-jetzt-ersetzt-werden/
- [22] Nordkurier https://www.nordkurier.de/politik/tauschen-cdu-und-csu-kanzler-merz-aus-sie-sind- ...
- [23] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/02/germany-election-merz-afd-defense- ...
- [24] Euronews https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/13/russian-drone-hits-train-two-km-fro ...
- [25] Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) https://www.ifri.org/fr/audio/lallemagne-1-apres-les-elections-quel-bilan-tirer-d ...
- [26] Berliner Zeitung https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/streit-der-koalition-merz-dementiert-klin ...
- [27] Berliner Zeitung https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/merz-vor-vertrauensfrage-nach-wahlsonntag ...
- [28] Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/can-friedri ...
- [29] taz https://taz.de/Schwarz-rote-Koalition/!6202576/
- [30] Hersfelder Zeitung https://www.hersfelder-zeitung.de/politik/soeder-dobrindt-oder-doch-wuest-der-kan ...
- [31] t-online https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101434146/friedri ...
- [32] Tagesspiegel https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/friedrich-merz-in-der-krise-kanzlerdammerung- ...
- [33] Berliner Zeitung https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/unruhe-in-der-regierung-vertrauensfrage-r ...
- [34] The European Conservative https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/merz-faces-mounting-pressure-as-re ...
- [35] Die Tagespost https://www.die-tagespost.de/politik/soeder-wuest-dobrindt-wie-sieht-die-cdu-welt ...
- [36] Legal Tribune Online https://www.lto.de/recht/nachrichten/n/neuwahl-termin-scholz-merz-vertrauensfrage ...
- [37] Berliner Zeitung https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/merz-bereitet-wohl-rueckzug-vor-am-wahlso ...
- [38] Tagesspiegel https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxQRlpGcTR4alh4d1pyaFo0T1RPUUhH ...
- [39] NZZ https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPYVJmbndWMnlzbzllWFF2bHhZb044 ...
- [40] mmnews.de (Senioren-Union) https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNRzZvbmFpbHJvX2hWdzV5SkRWSTVT ...
- [41] Bloomberg Politics https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/merz-cancels-trip-to-un-in-new ...
- [42] tagesschau https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/merz-un-generaldebatte-absage-100.h ...
- [44] ZDF heute https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/merz-cdu-kritik-vertrauensfrage-wahle ...
- [45] FAZ (Liveblog) https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/liveticker-bundespolitik-weil-seine-pr ...
- [46] FAZ (CDU im Dilemma) https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/cdu-im-dilemma-friedrich-merz-und-der- ...
- [47] Süddeutsche Zeitung (Podcast) https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/podcast-nachrichten-auf-den-punkt-merz-cdu-kr ...
- [48] Süddeutsche Zeitung https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/cdu-berlin-mecklenburg-vorpommern-landtagswah ...
- [49] n-tv Politik https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Merz-sagt-Reise-zur-UN-Generaldebatte-nach-New-York-a ...